The Crystal Ball has been put away … It is difficult to project what is coming next. One headline I recently saw read “Good Economic News is Bad Inflation News.” The past couple of years we have seen many changes in market conditions. Mortgage interest rates from the low 3’s to now in the mid 7’s. The federal reserve bank hiking the fed rates from basically zero to 5-5.5 percent to help curb inflation, and our economy still continues to stump the economists with new job and wage growth. All these facets are intended to weaken, slow, and curb the economy, but as it pertains to the real estate market, it is just penning up demand waiting for any relief. When the federal reserve bank decides to start cutting the rates, 6, 12, 18 months from now, watch out in the real estate section. We will see price appreciation unlike before, multiple bidders on a very low inventory level. Those waiting for relief in the interest rates may miss out because of the price appreciation expected on the homes sold at that time.
As of today, all I can report is history for you: month over month, quarter over quarter and year over year stats. Many people predicted a crash or bubble burst in the real estate market… that didn’t happen. The latest FOMO (fear of missing out) the media is hyping now is mortgage interest rates similar to the 1980’s where double digit interest rates will resurface instead of market bubble. I don’t believe that to be true.
As we look at the Plant City housing data, September 2023, our market area sold 94 homes for the month continuing to surpass the YTD average of 86 units per month. There were 174 homes pending contract and 174 homes active seeking buyers. People are still buying homes at these increased mortgage costs.
The 94 units sold number comprised of 34 new construction homes, which will continue to be a substantial part of the data due to the new housing developments. The area has several new communities starting to build out. Our housing inventory remains under pressure and last month increased slightly to around 1.85 months’ supply, which is still considerably less than what inventory supply should be for a normal market period. Sellers still have an upper hand in the transaction, but we are seeing more buyers requesting and receiving concessions like repair or closing costs assistance. The inventory outlook will continue to be stressed and tighten up. Our ADOM, average days on market, last month was 32.3 days a slight decline from the previous month.
In September our average sold price was $355,689 or an average price per SF of $200.95. These numbers are slightly down from the previous month. Looking at the Q3 numbers from 2023 – the average sold price was $382,509 a 1.8% increase versus the Q3 numbers for 2022. We were coming off the peak in 2022, so the market has stabilized. Looking at the units sold year over year for Q3, we saw an increase of 30% more homes sold. These numbers just tell us we are in a stable market and the increased mortgage rates are keeping the market from another spike in prices.
30-year average mortgage rates came in for the month of September at 7.2% but we still have upward pressure on these rates, the first week of October we had an average rate of 7.49%. The FED is getting closer to their inflation number, the new CPI numbers should be out at the printing of this article, hopefully the trend continues to move favorable in their view. These current mortgage rates will retreat once the FED starts reversing their rates and watch out for the stifled demand of home buyers.
If you are in the market to buy or sell your home, please seek an experienced professional Realtor® to assist you in this transaction process. There are too many consequences, going it alone without proper representation. Get the real scoop on our market. If you have any questions, want a market value analysis of your home, or see what’s available to purchase, please reach out.
M Crawford
Crawford Group
Sales Snapshot
The following residential properties were a sample listed as sold on the Greater Tampa Realtors Association MLS in Sep 2023 for the Plant City Market Area.
The home at 307 Walter Dr sold Sep 6 for $155,000. Built in 1954, it has 2 bedrooms, 1 bath and 888 square feet of living area.
The home at 1814 Bond St sold Sep 6 for $190,000. Built in 1974 it has 3 bedrooms, 1 bath and 798 square feet of living area.
The home at 805 W Baker St sold Sep 28 for $225,000. Built in 1939 it has 2 bedrooms, 1 bath and 1211 square feet of living area.
The home at 808 W Tever St sold Sep 29 for $260,000. Built in 1954, it has 3 bedrooms, 1 bath and 1032 square feet of living area.
The home at 3505 Marigold Patch Ct sold Sep 29 for $282,990. Built in 2023, it has 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bath and 1673 square feet of living area.
The home at 904 Monroe St sold Sep 1 for $312,000. Built in 1977, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 1400 square feet of living area.
The home at 4113 Thackery Way sold Sep 20 for $317,000. Built in 1990, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 1635 square feet of living area.
The home at 308 Hickory St sold Sep 22 for $335,000. Built in 1973, it has 4 bedrooms, 2 bath and 1452 square feet of living area.
The home 1678 Hazy Sea Dr sold Sep 22 for $367,990. Built in 2023, it has 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bath and 1961 square feet of living area.
The home at 803 Sylvan Ln sold Sep 25 for $375,000. Built in 1979, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 2216 square feet of living area.
The home at 2004 S Golfview Dr sold Sep 1 for $409,000. Built in 1987, it has 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bath and 1864 square feet of living area.
The home at 3523 Crescent Peak Way sold Sep 22 for $467,400. Built in 2023, it has 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bath and 3313 square feet of living area.
The home at 2937 Spring Hammock Dr sold Sep 15 for $499,900. Built in 1999, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 2195 square feet of living area.
The home at 5510 W Knights Griffin sold Sep 22 for $595,000. Built in 1983, it has 4 bedrooms, 3 bath and 2546 square feet of living area.
The home at 3056 Sutton Woods Dr sold Sep 29 for $695,000. Built in 1998, it has 4 bedrooms, 3 bath and 3233 square feet of living area.
The home at 809 E Keysville Rd sold Sep 29 for $750,000. Built in 1973, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 1561 square feet of living area.