“The Sky is Falling”… Chicken Little’s fairy tale is much like many of today’s media headlines. They contribute to consumer confusion and doubt about what is happening in the real estate market. The story is synonymous with alarmism, and one can summarize the message or moral as; don’t form an incorrect conclusion from insufficient data and don’t stoke fear in others without a good cause. The truth is, we are getting back to some normalcy of the real estate market of yesteryear.
In the previous decade, the real estate market appreciation encapsulated an average of 10% growth year over year. (2012-2019) We had housing inventory levels in the 6-plus month area and the average days to contract in the 57-day range. Then in 2020, the mortgage interest rates bottomed out, appreciation accelerated in the 20-25% range each year, inventory levels curtailed to less than one month’s worth of active housing inventory. It was like the wild wild west, anything goes, name your price, appraisal waivers, multiple offers, bidding wars, etc.
2023, the year of stabilization in the real estate market, market appreciation will likely be flat to some small percentage gain. The inventory has rebounded to 2+ months’ supply, still far from a normal level of 4-6 months, but buyers and sellers are more realistic and reasonable in their contract negotiations.
As we look at the Plant City housing data, October 2023, our market area sold 87 homes for the month continuing to maintain the YTD average of 87 units per month. There were 163 homes pending contract and 196 homes active seeking buyers. There are many more buyers seeking and, on the fence, waiting for some downward price and mortgage rate relief.
The 87 units sold number comprised of 30 new construction homes, which will continue to be a substantial part of the data due to the new housing developments. The area has several new communities starting to build out. Our housing inventory remains under pressure and last month increased slightly to around 2.1 months’ supply, which is still considerably less than what inventory supply should be for a normal market period. Sellers still have a slight upper hand in the transaction process, but we are seeing more buyers requesting and receiving concessions like repair or closing costs assistance. The inventory outlook will continue to be stressed and tighten up. Our ADOM, average days on market, last month was 39.5 days a 22% increase in time from the previous month.
In October our average sold price was $376,429 or an average price per SF of $197.53. The average sold price for this month was up 5.8% over September and year over year, up slightly less than 1%. Our community’s housing sold inventory consists of a fairly balanced valuation of homes, YTD over 55% of these homes sold were valued between $250,000 to $450,000. These positioned homes are the most sought after and will sell quickly even with today’s mortgage rates. The 30-year average mortgage rates came in for the month of October at 7.62% but we still have some upward pressure on these rates, the first week of November the rate ticked up 7.76%.
The FED last week received some good data on employment which is now placing some downward pressure on the mortgage rates. Hopefully, this trend continues to move favorable in their view. These current mortgage rates will retreat once the FED starts reversing their rates and watch out for the stifled demand of home buyers.
If you are in the market to buy or sell your home, please seek an experienced professional Realtor® to assist you in this transaction process. There are too many consequences going it alone without proper representation. Get the real scoop on our market. If you have any questions, want a market value analysis of your home, or see what’s available to purchase, please reach out.
M Crawford
Crawford Group
Sales Snapshot
The following residential properties were a sample listed as sold on the Greater Tampa Realtors Association MLS in Oct 2023 for the Plant City Market Area.
The home at 2303 Maki Rd Unit 21 sold Oct 27 for $158,000. Built in 1987, it has 2 bedrooms, 1.5 bath and 896 square feet of living area.
The home at 1403 N Franklin St sold Oct 25 for $230,000. Built in 1947 it has 5 bedrooms, 2 bath and 1764 square feet of living area.
The home at 3009 S Willow Dr sold Oct 19 for $260,000. Built in 1979 it has 4 bedrooms, 1.5 bath and 1352 square feet of living area.
The home at 2304 Tanbark Ridge PL sold Oct 26 for $285,000. Built in 2008, it has 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bath and 1805 square feet of living area.
The home at 3811 Stormy Thistle PL sold Oct 10 for $310,990. Built in 2023, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 1565 square feet of living area.
The home at 706 N Gordon St sold Oct 13 for $320,000. Built in 1987, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 1391 square feet of living area.
The home at 2909 Clemons Rd sold Oct 6 for $330,000. Built in 2002, it has 4 bedrooms, 2 bath and 1560 square feet of living area.
The home at 903 Ashentree Dr sold Oct 20 for $367,000. Built in 2019, it has 5 bedrooms, 3 bath and 2540 square feet of living area.
The home 1505 Oakdale St sold Oct 6 for $368,000. Built in 1957, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 1970 square feet of living area.
The home at 3743 Capri Coast Dr sold Oct 31 for $434,990. Built in 2023, it has 4 bedrooms, 3 bath and 2756 square feet of living area.
The home at 3214 Pine Club Dr sold Oct 13 for $459,000. Built in 1989, it has 4 bedrooms, 2 bath and 2290 square feet of living area.
The home at 4914 Thonotosassa Rd sold Oct 16 for $490,000. Built in 1970, it has 3 bedrooms, 1.5 bath and 1474 square feet of living area.
The home at 719 Tower Grove Dr sold Oct 3 for $525,000. Built in 2013, it has 4 bedrooms, 3 bath and 2696 square feet of living area.
The home at 3008 Sutton Woods Dr sold Oct 24 for $710,000. Built in 2000, it has 4 bedrooms, 3.5 bath and 2940 square feet of living area.
The home at 3422 Sam Allen Oaks Dr sold Oct 11 for $750,000. Built in 2001, it has 3 bedrooms, 3 bath and 2788 square feet of living area.
The home at 4331 E Knights Griffin Rd sold Oct 27 for $825,000. Built in 1975, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 2081 square feet of living area.