Housing Markets Shifts! Truth be told, it’s been ever-changing since the establishment of data collection. Some variables increase while others decline. This narrative can lead you in many directions, depending on how each data variable is represented. As a practicing Real Estate Team, we represent both sides of the transaction and sometimes the data doesn’t substantiate the current market conditions with one of the transaction sides.
Inventory Supply – Most Realtors tend to believe an equilibrium is established when we have a four to six month’s inventory supply. As the number decreases from the equilibrium, the pricing advantage increases to the seller and when the number moves higher than the equilibrium, the advantage shifts to the buyer. We finished the month of May with a supply equal to 1.7 month’s supply, an increase over April’s 1.1 and the previous 17 months with a supply less than 0.8 month’s supply.
Average days on market (ADOM) – The time it takes for a property to go from listing to under contract. Last year’s average was 17.3 days, the current year-to-day number is 17.1 days and last month it was 15.9 days. The telling fact is that when a property is priced correctly it goes under contract within 2-3 weeks. Looking back to the last financial/real estate fiasco (2006-2011) the ADOM was 161 days. A more stable ADOM time frame would be in the 30-45 days range.
Median selling prices per square foot – Let’s look at the previous market cycle for our Plant City community in real estate. In 2006 the median price per square foot peaked at $133.13 then after the financial fiasco the median price per square foot bottomed out in 2011 at $58.94. Since 2011, the median price per square foot has steadily increased year over year; 2021 we finished with a cumulative median price per square foot at $171.29. Year-to-daye 2022 at $194 and last month at $206.99.
As we continue to look at the Plant City housing data, we just completed the fifth month of the year, May, 2022. Our market area saw 83 homes sold this month, a second monthly decline from the previous months. The average selling price per SF was $214.60, which accounted for a 7.9 percent increase over last month. The average selling price was $380,131 or a 6.9 percent increase over last month.
The active inventory increased for the second month in a row from 1.09 to 1.69 month’s supply. We are gaining ground on the equilibrium of 4-6 month’s supply levels, but still have probably six to twelve months from obtaining that equilibrium,
While comparing the Median prices month over month data, May finished with a Median sales price of $360,000 which was higher than April and a 9.2 percent increase over the 2022 YTD average.
What does the near-term future in real estate look like? Inventory levels are starting to gain more supply, which may lead to increased ADOM levels. Some may conclude the market is slowing instead of getting closer to normalcy. Pricing strategies will become more important. As the variable time moves forward, the seller’s advantage will lessen giving way to more buyer options. The need for professional representation is more crucial now than ever before.
There are many fundamentals that influence our local housing market and have reviewed a few here, but many more exist. Over the next few months, we will continue to highlight these fundamentals and adjust to the different circumstances, CPI numbers, mortgage rates, etc. as we enter the primarily housing selling season.
As always, if you are in the market to buy or sell your home … seek out an experienced professional realtor to assist you in this transaction process. There are too many consequences to go it alone without representation. If you have any questions, please reach out.
Sales Snapshot
The following residential properties were a sample listed as sold on the Greater Tampa Realtors Association MLS in May 2022 for the Plant City Market Area.
The home at 801 N Merrin St sold May 20 for $185,000. Built in 1948, it has 2 bedrooms, 1 bath and 840 square feet of living area.
The home at 159 Alexander Woods sold May 13 for $242,000. Built in 2016, it has 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bath and 1466 square feet of living area.
The home at 1905 W Keysville Rd sold May 31 for $255,000. Built in 1962, it has 5 bedrooms, 4 bath and 1872 square feet of living area.
The home at 3102 Thackery Ct sold May 5 for $295,000. Built in 1992 it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 1856 square feet of living area.
The home at 3816 Pennsylvania Ave sold May 5 for $330,000. Built in 1952, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 1384 square feet of living area.
The home at 3116 Azalea Blossom Dr sold May 26 for $345,000. Built in 2007, it has 4 bedrooms, 2 baths and 1730 square feet of living area.
The home at 604 N Wills St sold May 21 for $360,000. Built in 1960, it has 4 bedrooms, 3 bath and 2089 square feet of living area.
The home at 3428 San Moise PL sold May 19 for $368,000. Built in 2015, it has 4 bedrooms, 2 baths and 1846 square feet of living area.
The home at 2825 Holly Bluff sold May 19 for $385,000. Built in 2014, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and 1864 square feet of living area.
The home 1904 Teakwood sold May 20 for $390,000. Built in 1976, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and 1934 square feet of living area.
The home at 3925 Swindell Rd sold May 27 for $405,000. Built in 1969, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and 1776 square feet of living area.
The home at 2914 Sutton Oaks Ct sold May 12 for $450,000. Built in 1999, it has 4 bedrooms, 2 baths and 2174 square feet of living area.
The home at 2806 Wedgewood Dr sold May 20 for $560,000. Built in 1984, it has 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths and 2608 square feet of living area.
The home at 1526 Ranchero Ln sold May 18 for $675,000. Built in 1991, it has 4 bedrooms, 3 baths and 2644 square feet of living area.
The home at 5104 N Poel Rd sold May 26 for $850,000. Built in 1974, it has 5 bedrooms, 3 baths and 1926 square feet of living area.
The home at 2512 E Knights Griffin sold May 4 for $965,250. Built in 2013, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 2576 square feet of living area.