Ripley’s Believe It or Not! NOT… Hopefully you have teamed up with a seasoned and experienced Realtor to provide enlightenment to the recital of news media headlines concerning the current state of the real estate market. Inexperience may cost you money in the transaction.
What’s happening in real estate news. There are many legitimate news providers that opine doom and gloom. Regardless, these sensational headlines have been circulating since the beginning of the year or longer. All have been warning of the market collapse. So where is this the US market collapse? Nowhere in sight!
Some recent inciting headlines: ~“US home prices are about to tumble as demand for new home craters” (Business Insider). ~ “The housing market is entering the most significant contraction in activity since 2006” (Fortune) ~ “Scary times: builders are slashing home prices and slowing construction as buyers pull back, survey shows” (MarketWatch). None of these headlines have come to light.
One of the main culprits ~ these analysts / reporters base their findings on total US Data, which groups the entire US, data is typically three plus months old and then try to extrapolate the findings for a localized area. Or they take one data point over time to create a narrative which is not complete without a summary. The state of Florida will always have more people wanting to relocate here than away from here for many obvious reasons, weather, taxes, and other activities. This creates a higher demand for the existing housing supply.
Our housing market isn’t invisible and has taken a few hits like other parts of the country; mortgage rates have increased significantly, inflation has restricted individual purchasing power, while average home prices still gain ground. Left to its own merits, the supply demand model will correct itself over time.
One area that has seen the most corrective modifications involves the pricing strategy for sellers. The days are bygone when you could throw any price on a listing and get multiple offers bid up. Days on market are becoming more critical, buyers contemplate issues with a home that has been on the market too many days. So, it’s extremely important to gain the correct pricing on day one. Pricing higher to have more negotiation range doesn’t work and typically will backfire causing the seller to lose money in the process.
As we continue to look at the Plant City housing data, we had one property sell for more than $3.5 million which would have skewed the data for this uncharacteristic purchase, and I limited it from the data points for average selling price. July-2022, our market area saw 81 homes sold, a slight decrease from the previous month but looking at year over year numbers basically even on par.
The average selling price per square foot was $202.46, which accounted for a 5.4 percent decrease over last month, but when compared to the YTD average it accounted for a 1.7 percent gain. The average selling price was $376,222 in July or a 1.8 percent increase over last month and compared to the YTD average it amounts to a 3.7 percent increase. At the moment its hard to define the trend, but it appears that the market peaked in May and is starting to decline slightly. One of the factors of the supply demand model, with higher interest rates for mortgages you tend to see prices decline in relevance. The active inventory increased for the fourth month in a row, July saw an increase to 2.18 month’s supply, a 153 percent increase over July 2021. We are gaining ground on the equilibrium of 4-6 month’s supply levels, but still have probably six months from obtaining that equilibrium, and buyers gaining an edge over the sellers.
While comparing the Median prices month over month data, July finished with a Median sales price of $373,500 which was greater than June’s number by 11 percent. The average days on market (ADOM) for July was 18.7 days, a slight decrease over June’s 19.5 days.
What does the near-term future in real estate look like? Inventory levels will continue to gain more supply, which may lead to increased ADOM levels. Mortgage rates have been erratic but on the upward trend. National news reports more negative situations in the real estate market overall than here in Florida. My simple explanation, many more people still want to relocate to Florida and communities like Plant City. This in turn creates a higher demand for our properties.
As always, if you are in the market to buy or sell your home … seek out an experienced professional realtor to assist you in this transaction process. There are too many consequences to go it alone without representation. If you have any questions, please reach out.
M Crawford
Crawford Group
Sales Snapshot
The following residential properties were a sample listed as sold on the Greater
Tampa Realtors Association MLS in July 2022 for the Plant City Market Area.
The home at 1110 E Laura St sold July 11 for $133,000. Built in 1952, it has 2 bedrooms, 1.5 bath and 1230 square feet of living area.
The home at 1104 Woodlawn Ave sold July 26 for $220,000. Built in 1957, it has 2 bedrooms, 1 bath and 718 square feet of living area.
The home at 6902 Stafford Rd sold July 11 for $250,000. Built in 1966, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 1056 square feet of living area.
The home at 424 Pevetty Dr sold July 26 for $275,000. Built in 1956 it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 1407 square feet of living area.
The home at 3601 Pierce Harwell LP sold July 7 for $290,000. Built in 1985, it has 4 bedrooms, 3 bath and 2058 square feet of living area.
The home at 4002 Thonotosassa Rd sold July 22 for $345,000. Built in 1969, it has 5 bedrooms, 3 baths and 2943 square feet of living area. The home at 1210 N Orange St sold July 20 for $370,000. Built in 1953, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 bath and 1807 square feet of living area.
The home at 1402 Mimosa Dr sold July 1 for $375,000. Built in 1957, it has 4 bedrooms, 2 baths and 1790 square feet of living area.
The home at 3108 Emerson Pl sold July 8 for $385,000. Built in 1992, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and 1856 square feet of living area.
The home 3102 Thackery Ct sold July 6 for $405,000. Built in 1992, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and 1856 square feet of living area.
The home at 1452 Tahitian Sunrise Dr sold July 29 for $447,445. Built in 2022, it has 6 bedrooms, 3 baths and 3326 square feet of living area.
The home at 2805 Spring Meadow Dr sold July 1 for $474,900. Built in 2000, it has 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and 2081 square feet of living area.
The home at 3012 Barret Ave sold July 15 for $525,000. Built in 1992, it has 4 bedrooms, 4 baths and 3202 square feet of living area.
The home at 2904 Spring Hammock Dr sold July 5 for $566,000. Built in 2000, it has 3 bedrooms, 3 baths and 2649 square feet of living area.
The home at 3409 Carpel St sold July 29 for $3,500,000. Built in 2009, it has 5 bedrooms, 6.5 baths and 8937 square feet of living area.