No one can argue that this year’s Durant team is much improved from last year’s, even if it’s only picked up one more win thus far.
But, will any of the Cougars feel that way if they miss the playoffs again? Probably not — which is why the Nov. 1 game against East Bay weighs so heavily on their minds.
As the coaches have been yelling throughout practices this week, “We win, we’re in!”
“That’s all we can do,” head coach Mike Gottman says. “Brandon and Plant City will be playing and, you know, it’ll be up to them who gets the other (playoff) spot. We’ve just got to win.”
THE PICTURE
At the moment, there’s a three-way tie for first place in the Class 7A District 8 standings. Durant, Plant City and Brandon all own 2-1 district records, while East Bay sits at 1-2 and Strawberry Crest at 1-3.
Should Durant win, then the playoff picture is quite easy to figure out: The winner of Brandon/Plant City nabs the other playoff spot, and there won’t have to be another three-way tiebreaker like in 2013. A Raiders win would give Durant the district title, because the Cougars own a victory over Plant City. A Brandon win would make Durant the runner-up, which still comes with a playoff spot.
If Durant loses, things get hairy. After the other games are played, that puts three teams with a 2-2 record — Durant, East Bay, and Brandon or Plant City — in second place. Depending on who wins that Eagles-Raiders game, there may be a tiebreaker.
The 2014-15 edition of the FHSAA Football Manual states, if there is a three-way tie (or more) for second place, and the tie can’t be broken based on regular-season results, then there will be a tiebreaker to determine the runner-up.
That’s good news for Brandon — the Eagles’ only district loss was to Strawberry Crest. If they win, and Durant loses, they have sole possession of first place. If they lose, then they already have wins over the Cougars and Indians that put them in the playoffs.
Going back to that “Brandon wins/Durant loses” scenario, here’s what the second-place race looks like: Durant has beaten Plant City but not East Bay, and Plant City has beaten East Bay but not Durant. There would have to be a tiebreaker. The Indians, who appeared to be the weakest team in the 2013 tiebreaker, rode two strong quarters to a surprise district win.
That’s why Gottman and the Cougars are taking an all-or-nothing approach with this game, which will be the Cougars’ last game of the 2014 regular season thanks to a bye week.
“It’s all on the line now,” he says.
CATCHING NO BREAKS
Making life more difficult for Durant is the fact that, besides the 37-7 win over Crest that opened October, the Cougars have had to deal with their worst enemy from 2013: losing the close ones.
They’re on a three-game losing streak — including a loss to Brandon two weeks ago that threw a wrench into everybody’s plans. Durant has only lost those games by 11 total points, with last week’s six-point loss to Hillsborough being its greatest deficit in that span. This was one of the biggest problems the Cougars had last season, and it appears to have come back to haunt them at the worst possible time.
“We lost some really tough heartbreakers,” Gottman says. “We lost a really tough one to Newsome. We had a chance to win it and didn’t finish the deal on that one. Brandon — another heartbreaker. We roughed the punter, gave them a first down. … Even with Hillsborough, we were still pretty competitive. It’s just, when we had to get some stops, we couldn’t get any stops.”
For comparison, Durant’s final four losses of 2013 also came by a total of 11 points. The last one was at East Bay and, now that they’ve got the Indians at home, the Cougars don’t intend to let that happen again.
TOUGHER TIMES
The 2013 Class 7A District 8 champions have already guaranteed that they won’t repeat this season but would still need to rely on a district tiebreaker (and good fortunes) to get back into the playoffs.
As was the case with everyone but Brandon, the Indians beat Strawberry Crest by double digits, although their 14-point margin of victory was the slimmest. They haven’t done so well against the other district foes, however. The Raiders and Eagles combined to outscore East Bay, 49-23, in those losses.
Most recently, the Indians found themselves in control of the Brandon game at halftime, with a 10-7 lead. And then, they let the Eagles score 21 points in the second half and eventually win, 28-17. They let Isaiah Alexander complete 10 of his 15 pass attempts for two touchdowns and 113 yards. And let running back Keith Cook gain 112 yards and score twice — on just five carries.
Do signs point to a Durant win on Halloween? Yes, but that doesn’t mean it’s going to be easy. The last thing these Cougars want is for the ghosts of what could have been to haunt them from now until August.
Contact Justin Kline at jkline@plantcityobserver.com.
MATCHUPS
PLANT CITY
There is still hope for the Raiders (3-4-1; 2-1 district) to make the playoffs. That’s not such an unlikely scenario.
There’s also still hope for them to win the district, but Raiders fans will have to hope for both Brandon and Durant to lose. That, on the other hand, seems unlikely on paper.
Those Plant City boys are in a good mood, having just snapped a losing streak with last Friday’s 37-16 win over Strawberry Crest. The team ran for 284 yards and three touchdowns. Austin Carswell hauled in a touchdown pass from Corey King, and Patrick Colleran’s 12-tackle performance now gives him 102 tackles this season.
It was the kind of win any team wants to get before going into a tough week, and this Eagles team has proven to be plenty tough. It just crushed much of East Bay’s playoff hopes with a 28-17 win and has so far proven to be a nightmare for the district’s playoff hopefuls.
The Raiders can’t pull any punches if they want to win this game and lock up another playoff spot, which sounds a whole lot better than hoping to win a three-way tiebreaker and sneak in there.
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
All games begin at 7:30 p.m. unless otherwise noted:
OCT. 31
East Bay at Durant (4748 Cougar Path, Plant City)
Brandon at Plant City (1 Raider Place, Plant City)
Strawberry Crest (BYE)
NOV. 7
Durant (BYE)
Plant City at Gaither (16200 N. Dale Mabry Highway, Tampa), 7 p.m.
Armwood at Strawberry Crest (4691 Gallagher Road, Dover)